World Population 2050 Prediction - The world’s population will likely reach 9.2 billion in 2050, with virtually all new growth occurring in the developing world, a U.N. report said Tuesday. According to the U.N. Population Division’s 2006 estimate, the world’s population will likely increase by 2.5 billion people over the next 43 years from the current 6.7 billion — a rise equivalent to the number of people in the world in 1950.
Hania Zlotnik, the division’s director, said an important change in the new population estimate is a decrease in expected deaths from AIDS because of the rising use of anti-retroviral drugs and a downward revision of the prevalence of the disease in some countries.
The new report estimates 32 million fewer deaths from AIDS during the 2005-2020 period in the 62 most affected countries, compared with the previous U.N. estimate in 2004.
This change contributed to the slightly higher world population estimate of 9.2 billion in 2050 than the 9.1 billion figure in the 2004 estimate, the report said.
The report also said most population growth will take place in less developed countries, whose numbers are projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. The populations of poor countries like Afghanistan, Burundi, Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, East Timor and Uganda are projected to at least triple by mid-century.
By contrast, the total population of richer countries is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion. The report said the figure would be lower without expected migration of people from poorer countries, averaging 2.3 million annually.
Boom in Africa
According to the report, 46 countries are expected to lose population by mid-century, including Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and most of the former Soviet republics.
Zlotnik said most countries in Asia and Latin America have reached the “relatively beneficial stage” of having more working-age adults than children or elderly in their populations, “and they will remain in that stage for at least two more decades.”
But their populations will then start to age, heading in the same direction as Europe and North America, she said.
“Europe is the only region at this moment where the number of people aged 60 and over has already surpassed the number of children,” she said. “We expect that Asia and Latin America will have by 2050 an age distribution that is very similar to the one that Europe has today.”
African countries will have an increase of working-age adults by 2050, but the continent’s overall population will also nearly double in that time, Zlotnik said.
“So it is the continent that is going to have to absorb a very high increase, and it will have to absorb it at levels of development that are the very lowest that we have in this world,” she said.
Total Midyear World Population
1950-2050
Year
Population
Average annual growth rate (%)
Average annual population change
1950 2,555,982,611
1.47
37,768,237
1951 2,593,750,848
1.61
42,042,862
1952 2,635,793,710
1.70
45,320,983
1953 2,681,114,693
1.77
47,842,880
1954 2,728,957,573
1.86
51,339,043
1955 2,780,296,616
1.88
52,854,158
1956 2,833,150,774
1.95
55,718,773
1957 2,888,869,547
1.93
56,393,986
1958 2,945,263,533
1.76
52,218,932
1959 2,997,482,465
1.39
41,951,479
1960 3,039,433,944
1.33
40,629,803
1961 3,080,063,747
1.80
56,018,983
1962 3,136,082,730
2.19
69,405,494
1963 3,205,488,224
2.19
71,002,977
1964 3,276,491,201
2.08
68,918,678
1965 3,345,409,879
2.07
70,135,995
1966 3,415,545,874
2.02
69,649,013
1967 3,485,194,887
2.04
71,751,266
1968 3,556,946,153
2.07
74,532,014
1969 3,631,478,167
2.05
75,123,281
1970 3,706,601,448
2.07
77,395,382
1971 3,783,996,830
2.01
76,793,114
1972 3,860,789,944
1.96
76,389,273
1973 3,937,179,217
1.91
75,725,073
1974 4,012,904,290
1.81
73,483,375
1975 4,086,387,665
1.75
72,049,425
1976 4,158,437,090
1.72
72,331,131
1977 4,230,768,221
1.69
72,268,962
1978 4,303,037,183
1.73
75,188,498
1979 4,378,225,681
1.71
75,638,139
1980 4,453,863,820
1.69
76,035,404
1981 4,529,899,224
1.75
80,163,373
1982 4,610,062,597
1.73
80,244,759
1983 4,690,307,356
1.68
79,323,181
1984 4,769,630,537
1.68
80,594,461
1985 4,850,224,998
1.68
82,355,074
1986 4,932,580,072
1.72
85,713,224
1987 5,018,293,296
1.71
86,343,509
1988 5,104,636,805
1.67
86,061,173
1989 5,190,697,978
1.66
87,027,432
1990 5,277,725,410
1.56
82,903,255
1991 5,360,628,665
1.54
83,112,161
1992 5,443,740,826
1.50
82,013,172
1993 5,525,753,998
1.45
80,584,690
1994 5,606,338,688
1.43
80,672,638
1995 5,687,011,326
1.39
79,424,294
1996 5,766,435,620
1.39
80,435,809
1997 5,846,871,429
1.34
78,899,442
1998 5,925,770,871
1.31
78,001,123
1999 6,003,771,994
1.28
77,230,943
2000 6,081,002,937
1.25
76,753,814
2001 6,157,756,751
1.24
76,520,745
2002 6,234,277,496
1.22
76,271,568
2003 6,310,549,064
1.20
75,993,822
2004 6,386,542,886
1.18
75,638,540
2005 6,462,181,426
1.16
75,478,997
2006 6,537,660,423
1.15
75,561,947
2007 6,613,222,370
1.14
75,666,070
2008 6,688,888,440
1.13
75,761,868
2009 6,764,650,308
1.11
75,772,948
2010 6,840,423,256
1.10
75,755,042
2011 6,916,178,298
1.09
75,622,621
2012 6,991,800,919
1.07
75,164,045
2013 7,066,964,964
1.05
74,468,973
2014 7,141,433,937
1.03
73,604,414
2015 7,215,038,351
1.00
72,747,545
2016 7,287,785,896
0.98
71,952,940
2017 7,359,738,836
0.96
71,088,531
2018 7,430,827,367
0.94
70,179,131
2019 7,501,006,498
0.92
69,208,946
2020 7,570,215,444
0.90
68,403,637
2021 7,638,619,081
0.88
67,761,184
2022 7,706,380,265
0.87
67,032,267
2023 7,773,412,532
0.85
66,280,271
2024 7,839,692,803
0.83
65,515,814
2025 7,905,208,617
0.82
64,887,452
2026 7,970,096,069
0.80
64,391,358
2027 8,034,487,427
0.79
63,850,629
2028 8,098,338,056
0.78
63,326,564
2029 8,161,664,620
0.77
62,837,502
2030 8,224,502,122
0.76
62,407,650
2031 8,286,909,772
0.75
61,984,643
2032 8,348,894,415
0.73
61,437,162
2033 8,410,331,577
0.72
60,846,930
2034 8,471,178,507
0.71
60,249,755
2035 8,531,428,262
0.70
59,603,503
2036 8,591,031,765
0.68
58,850,482
2037 8,649,882,247
0.67
57,857,590
2038 8,707,739,837
0.65
56,748,673
2039 8,764,488,510
0.63
55,671,500
2040 8,820,160,010
0.62
54,564,430
2041 8,874,724,440
0.60
53,400,952
2042 8,928,125,392
0.58
52,118,097
2043 8,980,243,489
0.56
50,792,416
2044 9,031,035,905
0.55
49,544,606
2045 9,080,580,511
0.53
48,328,264
2046 9,128,908,775
0.51
47,094,361
2047 9,176,003,136
0.50
45,729,012
2048 9,221,732,148
0.48
44,309,707
2049 9,266,041,855
0.46
43,009,684
2050 9,309,051,539
Hania Zlotnik, the division’s director, said an important change in the new population estimate is a decrease in expected deaths from AIDS because of the rising use of anti-retroviral drugs and a downward revision of the prevalence of the disease in some countries.
The new report estimates 32 million fewer deaths from AIDS during the 2005-2020 period in the 62 most affected countries, compared with the previous U.N. estimate in 2004.
This change contributed to the slightly higher world population estimate of 9.2 billion in 2050 than the 9.1 billion figure in the 2004 estimate, the report said.
The report also said most population growth will take place in less developed countries, whose numbers are projected to rise from 5.4 billion in 2007 to 7.9 billion in 2050. The populations of poor countries like Afghanistan, Burundi, Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Niger, East Timor and Uganda are projected to at least triple by mid-century.
By contrast, the total population of richer countries is expected to remain largely unchanged at 1.2 billion. The report said the figure would be lower without expected migration of people from poorer countries, averaging 2.3 million annually.
Boom in Africa
According to the report, 46 countries are expected to lose population by mid-century, including Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and most of the former Soviet republics.
Zlotnik said most countries in Asia and Latin America have reached the “relatively beneficial stage” of having more working-age adults than children or elderly in their populations, “and they will remain in that stage for at least two more decades.”
But their populations will then start to age, heading in the same direction as Europe and North America, she said.
“Europe is the only region at this moment where the number of people aged 60 and over has already surpassed the number of children,” she said. “We expect that Asia and Latin America will have by 2050 an age distribution that is very similar to the one that Europe has today.”
African countries will have an increase of working-age adults by 2050, but the continent’s overall population will also nearly double in that time, Zlotnik said.
“So it is the continent that is going to have to absorb a very high increase, and it will have to absorb it at levels of development that are the very lowest that we have in this world,” she said.
Total Midyear World Population
1950-2050
Year
Population
Average annual growth rate (%)
Average annual population change
1950 2,555,982,611
1.47
37,768,237
1951 2,593,750,848
1.61
42,042,862
1952 2,635,793,710
1.70
45,320,983
1953 2,681,114,693
1.77
47,842,880
1954 2,728,957,573
1.86
51,339,043
1955 2,780,296,616
1.88
52,854,158
1956 2,833,150,774
1.95
55,718,773
1957 2,888,869,547
1.93
56,393,986
1958 2,945,263,533
1.76
52,218,932
1959 2,997,482,465
1.39
41,951,479
1960 3,039,433,944
1.33
40,629,803
1961 3,080,063,747
1.80
56,018,983
1962 3,136,082,730
2.19
69,405,494
1963 3,205,488,224
2.19
71,002,977
1964 3,276,491,201
2.08
68,918,678
1965 3,345,409,879
2.07
70,135,995
1966 3,415,545,874
2.02
69,649,013
1967 3,485,194,887
2.04
71,751,266
1968 3,556,946,153
2.07
74,532,014
1969 3,631,478,167
2.05
75,123,281
1970 3,706,601,448
2.07
77,395,382
1971 3,783,996,830
2.01
76,793,114
1972 3,860,789,944
1.96
76,389,273
1973 3,937,179,217
1.91
75,725,073
1974 4,012,904,290
1.81
73,483,375
1975 4,086,387,665
1.75
72,049,425
1976 4,158,437,090
1.72
72,331,131
1977 4,230,768,221
1.69
72,268,962
1978 4,303,037,183
1.73
75,188,498
1979 4,378,225,681
1.71
75,638,139
1980 4,453,863,820
1.69
76,035,404
1981 4,529,899,224
1.75
80,163,373
1982 4,610,062,597
1.73
80,244,759
1983 4,690,307,356
1.68
79,323,181
1984 4,769,630,537
1.68
80,594,461
1985 4,850,224,998
1.68
82,355,074
1986 4,932,580,072
1.72
85,713,224
1987 5,018,293,296
1.71
86,343,509
1988 5,104,636,805
1.67
86,061,173
1989 5,190,697,978
1.66
87,027,432
1990 5,277,725,410
1.56
82,903,255
1991 5,360,628,665
1.54
83,112,161
1992 5,443,740,826
1.50
82,013,172
1993 5,525,753,998
1.45
80,584,690
1994 5,606,338,688
1.43
80,672,638
1995 5,687,011,326
1.39
79,424,294
1996 5,766,435,620
1.39
80,435,809
1997 5,846,871,429
1.34
78,899,442
1998 5,925,770,871
1.31
78,001,123
1999 6,003,771,994
1.28
77,230,943
2000 6,081,002,937
1.25
76,753,814
2001 6,157,756,751
1.24
76,520,745
2002 6,234,277,496
1.22
76,271,568
2003 6,310,549,064
1.20
75,993,822
2004 6,386,542,886
1.18
75,638,540
2005 6,462,181,426
1.16
75,478,997
2006 6,537,660,423
1.15
75,561,947
2007 6,613,222,370
1.14
75,666,070
2008 6,688,888,440
1.13
75,761,868
2009 6,764,650,308
1.11
75,772,948
2010 6,840,423,256
1.10
75,755,042
2011 6,916,178,298
1.09
75,622,621
2012 6,991,800,919
1.07
75,164,045
2013 7,066,964,964
1.05
74,468,973
2014 7,141,433,937
1.03
73,604,414
2015 7,215,038,351
1.00
72,747,545
2016 7,287,785,896
0.98
71,952,940
2017 7,359,738,836
0.96
71,088,531
2018 7,430,827,367
0.94
70,179,131
2019 7,501,006,498
0.92
69,208,946
2020 7,570,215,444
0.90
68,403,637
2021 7,638,619,081
0.88
67,761,184
2022 7,706,380,265
0.87
67,032,267
2023 7,773,412,532
0.85
66,280,271
2024 7,839,692,803
0.83
65,515,814
2025 7,905,208,617
0.82
64,887,452
2026 7,970,096,069
0.80
64,391,358
2027 8,034,487,427
0.79
63,850,629
2028 8,098,338,056
0.78
63,326,564
2029 8,161,664,620
0.77
62,837,502
2030 8,224,502,122
0.76
62,407,650
2031 8,286,909,772
0.75
61,984,643
2032 8,348,894,415
0.73
61,437,162
2033 8,410,331,577
0.72
60,846,930
2034 8,471,178,507
0.71
60,249,755
2035 8,531,428,262
0.70
59,603,503
2036 8,591,031,765
0.68
58,850,482
2037 8,649,882,247
0.67
57,857,590
2038 8,707,739,837
0.65
56,748,673
2039 8,764,488,510
0.63
55,671,500
2040 8,820,160,010
0.62
54,564,430
2041 8,874,724,440
0.60
53,400,952
2042 8,928,125,392
0.58
52,118,097
2043 8,980,243,489
0.56
50,792,416
2044 9,031,035,905
0.55
49,544,606
2045 9,080,580,511
0.53
48,328,264
2046 9,128,908,775
0.51
47,094,361
2047 9,176,003,136
0.50
45,729,012
2048 9,221,732,148
0.48
44,309,707
2049 9,266,041,855
0.46
43,009,684
2050 9,309,051,539
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